Cost benefit analysis of holding Amex gold card for 2 years

After weighing the card, I am doing a cost benefit analysis of holding Amex gold card for 2 years today. On the cost side:

• Annual fees: 250 dollars/year. 500 dollars for holding the card for 2 years

On the benefit side:

• Sign up bonus of 50,000 Membership Rewards points after meeting 3K spending
• Extra 10,000 MR points when you make a purchase between 14th and 17th month
• 120 dollars bonus if signing up through GCR portal
• 100 dollars travel credit annually if booking on Amex travel web site
• 4 plaza premium lounge passes

The calculations:

MR points have a nominal price of 1 cent per point but it's worth more if transferred to the airlines royalty program. I value MR point 1.6 cents per point.

So the sign up bonus points are worth 960 dollars plus 48 dollars worth of points after you have met the minimum spending.

(50000+10000) x 1.6 =960 dollars

3000 x 1.6 =48 dollars  OR 3000 x 1.6 x 2= 96 dollars if spending is in 2 X categories like travel, drug store and grocery

Every year, you get 100 dollars travel credit so 200 dollars for holding the card for 2 years

I value the other benefits for 50 dollars so 100 dollars for 2 years

960 + 48 or (96) +120 + 200 + 100 =1428 or 1476 dollars, the cost is 500 dollars, you are still ahead of 928 or 976 dollars. 

For people had this card before, the revamped personal gold is treated as a new product so you will still get the sign up bonus after meeting the spending requirement.

For a net gain of 900+ dollars, it's worthwhile to sign up for this new Amex card!